Temporal trends and projections of caesarean sections in Brazil, its administrative macro-regions, and federative units

Abstract Trend studies on the model of birth in Brazil show a scenario successive linear increases cesarean rates. However, they ignore possible changes temporal evolution this delivery modality. Thus, study aimed to evaluate inflection points rates Brazil, its macro-regions, and federated units, as well estimate projections for 2030. A time series with information sections from 1994 2019 SUS Department Informatics was used. Autoregressive integrated moving average joinpoint regression models were used obtain rate trends, respectively. Caesarean showed significant upward trend over 26 years at all levels aggregation. On other hand, when considering formation segments, stabilization observed both country South Midwest regions, starting 2012. Rates tended increase North Northeast significantly decrease Southeast. Projections that 2030, 57.4% births will be cesarean, higher than 70% Southeast regions.